Lung cancer death rates among women to increase by nearly half by 2030 as breast cancer rates decrease, study warns

  • Lung cancer death rates among women worldwide is expected to increase by 43 percent by 2030
  • Meanwhile, global female breast cancer mortality rates are projected to decrease by nine percent
  • Researchers believe the decline of breast cancer deaths is due to more early detection and new therapies
  • However, smoking among women has increased in several countries and the highest death rates will be seen in wealthier nations

By Mary Kekatos For Dailymail.com

Published: | Updated:

Lung cancer death rates among women are expected to rise nearly 50 percent by 2030, surpassing deaths from breast cancer, a shocking new study warns.

Scientists say the global lung cancer mortality rate will increase by 43 percent while the worldwide mortality rate for breast cancer will decrease by nine percent.

Although breast cancer is the most common cancer among women, death rates have been falling likely due to early detection in screenings and new treatments.

Meanwhile, smoking among women has increased in several countries and the researchers are calling upon lawmakers to implement policy changes - such as raising tobacco prices - that might help drive down the staggering number.

Lung cancer death rates among women are expected to rise nearly half by 2030, surpassing deaths from breast cancer, a shocking new study warns

Lung cancer death rates among women are expected to rise nearly half by 2030, surpassing deaths from breast cancer, a shocking new study warns

Researchers said that while past studies have focused on death rate estimates for these cancers in single countries or continents, few have focused on worldwide trends.

For the study, published in Cancer Research, a journal of the American Association for Cancer Research, the team looked at data of breast cancer and lung cancer death rates among women between 2008 and 2014.

The figures from the World Health Organization Mortality Database include 52 countries, all with a population of more than one million people.

The researchers estimated that the lung cancer mortality rate worldwide will rise from 11.2 per 100,000 women in 2015 to 16.0 in 2030.

They projected the highest rates will be in Europe and Oceania and the lowest rates in the Americas and Asia. 

'Different timelines have been observed in the tobacco epidemic across the globe,' said Dr Jose M. Martínez-Sánchez, an associate professor of public health, epidemiology and biostatistics at Universitat Internacional de Catalunya (UIC Barcelona). 

'This is because it was socially acceptable for women to smoke in the European and Oceanic countries included in our study many years before this habit was commonplace in America and Asia, which reflects why we are seeing higher lung cancer mortality rates in these countries.' 

Meanwhile, the global breast cancer mortality rate is expected to decrease from 16.1 per 100,000 women in 2015 to 14.7 in 2030.

The highest rate is estimated to be in Europe despite an overall decrease and the lowest rate in Asia, but with an overall increase. 

Dr Martínez-Sánchez said that the reason for rising rates of breast cancer death in Asia likely has to do with the 'adaptation a Westernized lifestyle'.  

Several countries across the continent are experiencing rising rates of obesity and alcohol consumption, both of which increase the risk of breast cancer, he says.

However, Dr Martínez-Sánchez believes that the rates are decreasing in Europe to increased awareness in several countries.

'[This leads] to active participation in screening programs and the improvement of treatments,' he said.

Dr Martínez-Sánchez added that wealthier nations will have the highest mortality rates for lung cancer, surpassing breast cancer by 2030.

He said this is partially because of demographics, where the older population - who smoked more than the younger population - is increasing. 

'This research is particularly important because it provides evidence for health professionals and policymakers to decide on global strategies to reduce the social, economic, and health impacts of lung cancer among women in the future,' he said.

'While we have made great strides in reducing breast cancer mortality globally, lung cancer mortality rates among women are on the rise worldwide.

'If we do not implement measures to reduce smoking behaviors in this population, lung cancer mortality will continue to increase throughout the world.'   

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