How healthy will YOUR country be in 2040? Table of 195 nations reveals Spanish people will live the longest in 22 years' time (but the UK and US aren't even in the top 20)

  • People in Spain will have an average life expectancy of 85.8 years in 2040
  • Lesotho, in South Africa, will have the lowest, with just 57.3 years
  • The UK will rise from 26th to 23rd place, with a future lifespan of 83.3 years
  • And the US will drop 21 places for 43rd to 64th place, increasing by only a year 
  • Experts predict a rise in deaths from obesity, cancer and heart and lung disease 

The 10 countries where life expectancy will be highest and lowest by 2040 have today been named by scientists. 

Spain tops the charts, with people being born in 2040 expected to live until they are 85.8 years old.

Whereas Lesotho, within South Africa, will be worst off, with its average life expectancy likely to be just 57.3 years.

The UK is expected to remain outside of the top 20, ranking 23rd with a lifespan of 83.3, and the US will drop from 43rd to 64th place – with an increase of just one year – the study claims.

Spain tops the charts, with people being born in 2040 expected to live until they are 85.8 years old. Whereas Lesotho, within South Africa , will be worst off, with its average life expectancy likely to be just 57.3 years

Spain tops the charts, with people being born in 2040 expected to live until they are 85.8 years old. Whereas Lesotho, within South Africa , will be worst off, with its average life expectancy likely to be just 57.3 years

Experts say the improvements of recent generations are likely to slow down because of health problems like obesity, diabetes, high blood pressure, alcohol and tobacco. 

The global health forecasts were made by researchers from the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation.

In research published in medical journal The Lancet, they revealed people in every country in the world are likely to live longer in 2040 than they do now.

But the scientists predict there will be a rise in the number of people dying from non-contagious diseases like cancer and lung and kidney disease.

How quickly countries' life expectancies rise will depend on how well governments deal with these growing health threats.

'Inequalities will continue to be large,' said researcher Dr Christopher Murray. 

Researchers from Washington University have predicted the average lifespans of countries around the world and predict more people will die of non-contagious diseases like cancer (file image)

Researchers from Washington University have predicted the average lifespans of countries around the world and predict more people will die of non-contagious diseases like cancer (file image)

'In a substantial number of countries, too many people will continue earning relatively low incomes, remain poorly educated, and die prematurely. 

'But nations could make faster progress by helping people tackle the major risks, especially smoking and poor diet.'

Beneath Spain in the top 10 will be Japan, with a 2040 life expectancy of 85.7 years, Singapore (85.4), Switzerland (85.2), Portugal and Italy (84.5), Israel (84.4), France (84.3), and Luxembourg and Australia (84.1).

All the countries are in the current top 10 for life expectancy, except Portugal and Israel which are predicted to replace Andorra and Iceland, currently sixth and ninth.

THE 10 COUNTRIES WHICH WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST LIFE EXPECTANCY IN 2040

  1. Spain 85.8 
  2. Japan 85.7 
  3. Singapore 85.4 
  4. Switzerland 85.2 
  5. Portugal 84.5 
  6. Italy 84.5 
  7. Israel 84.4 
  8. France 84.3 
  9. Luxembourg 84.1 
  10. Australia 84.1 
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THE 10 COUNTRIES WHICH WILL HAVE THE LOWEST LIFE EXPECTANCY IN 2040

  1. Lesotho 57.3
  2. Central African Republic 58.4
  3. Zimbabwe 61.3
  4. Somalia 63.6
  5. Swaziland 65.1
  6. Afghanistan 65.2
  7. Kiribati 65.7
  8. Federated States of Micronesia 66.2
  9. Papua New Guinea 66.3
  10. Solomon Islands 66.5
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African countries continue to have the worst rates of premature death with people in the Central African Republic, Lesotho, Somalia and Zimbabwe still expected to die before the age of 65 by 2040.

The bottom 10 in 2040 will consist of the Central African Republic (58.4), Zimbabwe (61.3), Somalia (63.6), Swaziland (65.1), Afghanistan (65.2), Kiribati (65.7), Micronesia (66.2), Papua New Guina (66.3) and the Solomon Islands (66.5). 

The average lifespan in the UK is set to increase from 80.8 years to 83.3, moving Brits up the world league table from 26th to 23rd. 

Figures from the Office for National Statistics last month showed there was virtually no extension of life expectancy between 2015 and 2017.

It is the first time since modern measurements were launched nearly 40 years ago that life expectancy has stalled.

WHICH 10 COUNTRIES  HAD THE LOWEST LIFE EXPECTANCY IN 2016?

  1. Central African Republic 50.1 
  2. Lesotho 50.4 
  3. Somalia 57.2 
  4. Swaziland 57.6 
  5. Afghanistan 57.9 
  6. Zambia 58.7 
  7. Guinea-Bissau 58.8 
  8. Sierra Leone 59.1 
  9. Zimbabwe 59.2 
  10. South Sudan 59.7
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WHICH 10 COUNTRIES HAD THE HIGHEST LIFE EXPECTANCY IN 2016?

  1. Japan 83.7 
  2. Switzerland 83.3 
  3. Singapore 83.3 
  4. Spain 82.9 
  5. Australia 82.5 
  6. Andorra 82.5 
  7. Italy 82.3 
  8. France 82.3 
  9. Iceland 82.3 
  10. Luxembourg 82.2
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Researchers from the University of Washington are slightly more optimistic, predicting that if trends continue as they are, the average person in the UK will live a year longer with each decade that passes. 

But average life expectancy in the US, one of the world’s richest nations, is forecast to increase by only 1.1 years to 79.8.

Experts suggest this is likely the result of more obesity-related diseases, such as heart disease and several cancers.

Study author Dr Kyle Foreman said countries could change their outcomes with better public health initiatives.

He said: ‘The future of the world’s health is not pre-ordained, and there is a wide range of plausible trajectories.

'But whether we see significant progress or stagnation depends on how well or poorly health systems address key health drivers.'

To make the predictions, scientists looked at the impact of 79 health factors including smoking, body mass index (BMI), and lack of clean water and sanitation on causes of death around the world.

In 2016 – the last time the study was carried out – four of the top 10 causes of premature death were non-communicable diseases and injuries.

The new forecast shows that by 2040 this figure increases to eight with heart disease, stroke, chronic lung disease, chronic kidney disease, Alzheimer’s disease, diabetes, lung cancer and road accident injuries are all in the top 10 causes of premature death in 2040.

SO, HOW DOES YOUR COUNTRY RANK? 
Country  2016 Life expectancy Rank 2016 Predicted 2040 life expectancy Predicted Rank 2040 Change between 2016 and 2040
Japan 83.68 1 85.71 2 2.0
Switzerland 83.34 2 85.18 4 1.8
Singapore 83.33 3 85.41 3 2.1
Spain 82.94 4 85.78 1 2.8
Australia 82.51 5 84.10 10 1.6
Andorra 82.49 6 83.74 18 1.3
Italy 82.33 7 84.53 6 2.2
France 82.30 8 84.31 8 2.0
Iceland 82.29 9 83.98 12 1.7
Luxembourg 82.17 10 84.11 9 1.9
Sweden 82.15 11 84.03 11 1.9
Norway 82.13 12 83.57 20 1.4
Israel 82.07 13 84.41 7 2.3
Finland 81.83 14 83.97 13 2.1
Netherlands 81.64 15 83.54 21 1.9
Austria 81.63 16 83.85 16 2.2
Canada 81.61 17 83.06 27 1.5
New Zealand 81.51 18 83.79 17 2.3
Malta 81.15 19 83.88 15 2.7
Ireland 81.05 20 83.28 24 2.2
Belgium 81.00 21 82.89 28 1.9
South Korea 80.98 22 83.51 22 2.5
Portugal 80.97 23 84.54 5 3.6
Germany 80.96 24 83.24 25 2.3
Greece 80.93 25 83.69 19 2.8
United Kingdom 80.84 26 83.30 23 2.5
Slovenia 80.84 27 83.89 14 3.1
Denmark 80.74 28 82.87 29 2.1
Costa Rica 80.72 29 82.84 30 2.1
Cyprus 80.43 30 82.66 33 2.2
Lebanon 80.10 31 81.80 40 1.7
Chile 80.03 32 82.00 38 2.0
Qatar 79.91 33 82.28 36 2.4
Peru 79.68 34 82.57 35 2.9
Taiwan 79.50 35 81.25 42 1.8
Kuwait 79.41 36 81.35 41 1.9
Czech Republic 79.20 37 82.75 31 3.5
Maldives 78.94 38 80.56 50 1.6
Bermuda 78.91 39 82.68 32 3.8
Turkey 78.83 40 83.12 26 4.3
Cuba 78.82 41 80.98 45 2.2
Panama 78.78 42 82.19 37 3.4
United States 78.71 43 79.84 64 1.1
Puerto Rico 78.51 44 80.29 53 1.8
Nicaragua 78.32 45 80.36 51 2.0
Colombia 78.16 46 81.01 44 2.8
Ecuador 77.96 47 80.65 48 2.7
Poland 77.89 48 82.65 34 4.8
Estonia 77.55 49 80.65 49 3.1
Albania 77.51 50 80.25 54 2.7
Tunisia 77.48 51 79.82 65 2.3
Thailand 77.48 52 80.20 56 2.7
Algeria 77.43 53 79.88 63 2.4
Antigua and Barbuda 77.27 54 79.01 73 1.7
Croatia 77.21 55 80.22 55 3.0
Bosnia and Herzegovina 77.20 56 79.21 72 2.0
Uruguay 77.19 57 79.29 71 2.1
Sri Lanka 77.08 58 80.09 59 3.0
Montenegro 77.05 59 80.17 58 3.1
Slovakia 76.97 60 80.85 47 3.9
Saudi Arabia 76.96 61 81.24 43 4.3
Oman 76.90 62 79.93 61 3.0
Brunei 76.90 63 78.15 90 1.3
Bahrain 76.79 64 79.63 67 2.8
Argentina 76.66 65 78.75 76 2.1
Barbados 76.64 66 78.01 91 1.4
Jordan 76.34 67 79.39 69 3.0
China 76.32 68 81.87 39 5.6
Mexico 76.06 69 78.26 87 2.2
Saint Lucia 76.05 70 78.26 86 2.2
Iran 76.02 71 78.74 77 2.7
Serbia 75.85 72 78.39 84 2.5
Hungary 75.72 73 80.17 57 4.5
Dominican Republic 75.64 74 79.92 62 4.3
Malaysia 75.64 75 79.94 60 4.3
Armenia 75.57 76 78.38 85 2.8
United Arab Emirates 75.54 77 79.49 68 4.0
El Salvador 75.50 78 77.95 93 2.4
Northern Mariana Islands 75.50 79 76.71 101 1.2
Venezuela 75.33 80 77.11 98 1.8
Brazil 75.24 81 78.46 82 3.2
Lithuania 75.13 82 78.93 74 3.8
Romania 75.08 83 80.91 46 5.8
Libya 75.08 84 77.13 97 2.1
Bulgaria 75.07 85 80.33 52 5.3
Latvia 75.05 86 79.68 66 4.6
Morocco 75.02 87 78.92 75 3.9
Jamaica 74.93 88 75.60 115 0.7
Macedonia 74.75 89 78.69 79 3.9
Virgin Islands, U.S. 74.62 90 77.98 92 3.4
Mauritius 74.57 91 78.71 78 4.1
Vietnam 74.54 92 78.46 83 3.9
Paraguay 74.49 93 76.37 103 1.9
Georgia 73.91 94 78.20 89 4.3
The Bahamas 73.86 95 75.83 112 2.0
Bhutan 73.80 96 78.61 81 4.8
Seychelles 73.69 97 77.88 94 4.2
Belarus 73.61 98 78.24 88 4.6
Cape Verde 73.56 99 76.63 102 3.1
Bolivia 73.28 100 77.56 95 4.3
Trinidad and Tobago 72.96 101 75.34 117 2.4
Dominica 72.95 102 73.69 138 0.7
Guatemala 72.81 103 76.02 109 3.2
Honduras 72.74 104 76.04 108 3.3
Timor-Leste 72.72 105 77.41 96 4.7
Bangladesh 72.63 106 79.34 70 6.7
American Samoa 72.44 107 73.74 137 1.3
Guam 72.35 108 74.88 122 2.5
Ukraine 72.16 109 74.53 127 2.4
Moldova 72.04 110 74.91 121 2.9
Azerbaijan 72.04 111 75.62 114 3.6
Egypt 71.98 112 76.19 106 4.2
Samoa 71.92 113 74.34 131 2.4
Palestine 71.85 114 72.19 152 0.3
Belize 71.84 115 73.94 133 2.1
Tajikistan 71.75 116 76.27 104 4.5
Indonesia 71.67 117 76.73 100 5.1
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines 71.66 118 73.37 139 1.7
Kazakhstan 71.60 119 76.15 107 4.5
Grenada 71.59 120 73.36 140 1.8
Suriname 71.32 121 73.11 142 1.8
Kyrgyzstan 71.23 122 74.52 128 3.3
Russian Federation 70.96 123 75.58 116 4.6
Nepal 70.87 124 76.85 99 6.0
North Korea 70.83 125 72.14 153 1.3
Sao Tome and Principe 70.63 126 74.94 119 4.3
Tonga 70.43 127 72.68 145 2.3
Uzbekistan 70.27 128 74.37 130 4.1
Philippines 70.22 129 74.16 132 3.9
Mauritania 70.20 130 75.79 113 5.6
Turkmenistan 70.18 131 76.20 105 6.0
Greenland 70.03 132 71.76 154 1.7
Myanmar 69.99 133 75.86 111 5.9
Cambodia 68.76 134 74.65 125 5.9
India 68.55 135 74.48 129 5.9
Sudan 68.24 136 74.92 120 6.7
Syria 68.15 137 78.62 80 10.5
Mongolia 68.14 138 71.65 156 3.5
Rwanda 67.80 139 74.83 124 7.0
Guyana 67.67 140 71.39 158 3.7
Iraq 67.65 141 73.87 135 6.2
Pakistan 67.62 142 74.53 126 6.9
Comoros 67.56 143 72.62 147 5.1
The Gambia 67.35 144 72.70 144 5.4
Laos 67.16 145 75.16 118 8.0
Kenya 66.89 146 73.89 134 7.0
Yemen 66.72 147 73.18 141 6.5
Djibouti 66.70 148 72.65 146 6.0
Gabon 66.56 149 71.28 159 4.7
Senegal 66.24 150 72.33 150 6.1
Ghana 66.02 151 72.34 149 6.3
Ethiopia 65.65 152 73.85 136 8.2
Equatorial Guinea 65.58 153 75.91 110 10.3
Federated States of Micronesia 65.58 154 66.21 188 0.6
Botswana 65.42 155 69.98 161 4.6
Fiji 65.36 156 66.99 183 1.6
Nigeria 65.00 157 74.84 123 9.8
Marshall Islands 64.96 158 67.90 178 2.9
Namibia 64.84 159 72.74 143 7.9
Angola 64.66 160 72.50 148 7.8
Benin 64.40 161 71.52 157 7.1
Liberia 64.38 162 69.60 166 5.2
Tanzania 64.30 163 72.28 151 8.0
Haiti 64.26 164 69.61 165 5.3
Vanuatu 63.95 165 67.72 179 3.8
Eritrea 63.71 166 68.63 174 4.9
Solomon Islands 63.09 167 66.50 186 3.4
Congo 62.92 168 70.15 160 7.2
Madagascar 62.70 169 68.85 173 6.2
Togo 62.62 170 69.84 162 7.2
South Africa 62.43 171 69.33 169 6.9
Uganda 62.20 172 69.48 168 7.3
Kiribati 61.83 173 65.70 189 3.9
Mali 61.82 174 71.68 155 9.9
Niger 61.56 175 69.83 163 8.3
Democratic Republic of the Congo 61.54 176 68.92 171 7.4
Papua New Guinea 60.84 177 66.31 187 5.5
Burkina Faso 60.78 178 69.72 164 8.9
Guinea 60.67 179 69.03 170 8.4
Burundi 60.35 180 67.30 181 7.0
Malawi 60.19 181 68.01 176 7.8
Cameroon 60.15 182 68.01 177 7.9
Mozambique 60.03 183 69.51 167 9.5
Cote d'Ivoire 59.84 184 68.87 172 9.0
Chad 59.76 185 68.15 175 8.4
South Sudan 59.72 186 67.28 182 7.6
Zimbabwe 59.23 187 61.33 193 2.1
Sierra Leone 59.12 188 66.87 184 7.8
Guinea-Bissau 58.75 189 66.81 185 8.1
Zambia 58.66 190 67.33 180 8.7
Afghanistan 57.94 191 65.23 190 7.3
Swaziland 57.58 192 65.14 191 7.6
Somalia 57.18 193 63.58 192 6.4
Lesotho 50.36 194 57.35 195 7.0
Central African Republic 50.12 195 58.38 194 8.3

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